The Truth Behind The Astros Scandal
Game 5 of the 2017 World Series was broken down into one singular narrative: collapse. But, years later, a new one is starting to take place: Fluke.
Bottom of the 4th one out with two runners on base, the Astros had a tough time breaking 3x Cy Young winner and best pitcher in baseball Clayton Kershaw, but now is their chance to capitalize.
In steps, Yuli Guriel with unusual confidence. Surprising, not only because of the high-stake situation but also because Guriel’s only appearance against Kershaw has been in this World Series.
Kershaw looks in and gets his sign and fires a fastball down and in. Guriel sits on it all the way and sends a deep shot to left that clangs off the brick wall that encompasses left field of Minute Maid Park. A missed location by Kershaw no doubt but peculiar that the relative ease that Guriel hit it.
The stats
Kershaw is known to keep hitters off-balance with his mix of pitches, especially to start counts. In fact, according to MLB.com and FanGraphs, in the 20 batters he faced in game five alone, 12
of them saw fastballs while the other 8 saw off-speed pitches. For all of you math nerds at home, that is a 60%-40% split; The average major league pitcher stays steady at around 70% first-pitch fastballs.
In a big-time moment in the game in the game with a base open and Kershaw keeping hitters off-balance, most MLB hitters are laying off the first pitch, but Guriel did not hesitate and launched
a game-tying moon shot.
So, what exactly does this mean; we already know that the Astros bent the rules why does this situation matter? Well, this one example depicts how substantial the Astros advantage was in 2017, one that many may not understand.
When people talk about the Astros scandal, one thing that fans use in defense of them is their talent, and most use that as an argument for Houston retaining their 2017 title. But, their
advantage of knowing what pitch is coming enhances their skill tremendously.
“from release of the pitch until it gets to the plate, a 95-mile-an-hour fastball is around 425-450 milliseconds.” Says neurophysiologist Jason Sherwin who conducted brain research on MLB
hitters reaction time. “Now, on the other side, it takes 150 milliseconds on average for a Major League Baseball player to get their bat around.”
Hitting a major league pitch has long been known to be one of the difficult feats in sports, so these numbers may not be surprising, but relating these numbers to the Astros is where we shape
where their advantage lies.
Imagine changing milliseconds into seconds, that in essence is what Houston was able to accomplish. Dr. Sherwin claims that it takes hitters an average of 425-450 milliseconds to decipher a pitch, not including the time it takes for a hitter to get their bat around.
Since we have been analyzing Kershaw's pitching metrics, let's use him as an example. Kershaw typically goes into his wind right after he confirms his sign; from there, it takes him an average
of 2.19 seconds to complete his motion towards the plate.
The first 400 milliseconds hitters need to breakdown a pitch is taken out of the equation for Astros hitters, and all they need to worry about is the 150 milliseconds required to get the bat
around on a pitch.
Knowing what pitch is coming also tells players what not to swing at: “Kershaw threw 51 sliders and curveballs that day, and got *zero* swings and misses on them,” Said MLB writer Tom Verducci “that alone will make you start thinking that something was up.”
One question continues to be asked: If the Astros had such an insurmountable advantage, why did the series go to game 7? Reports by the MLB claim that the Astros were only able to utilize their personnel at minute maid park relaying signs from a video camera in center field, and the numbers back those statements.
In home games, Houston batted a combined average of .273 with a .343 on-base percentage .519 slugging percentage and scored an average of 5.7 runs per game.
In away games, they batted a combined average of .208 with a 284 on-base percentage .347 slugging percentage and an average of 3 runs per game.
Here are some of the Astros corner piece hitters and their averages in 2017 home/away:
Alex Bregman: Road – .154 BA, .508 OPS; Home – .273 BA, .857 OPS.
Carlos Correa: Road – .211 BA, .626 OPS; Home – .371 BA, 1.164 OPS.
Jose Altuve: Road – .143 BA, .497 OPS; Home – .472 BA, 1.541 OPS.
Brian McCann: Road – .037 BA, .198 OPS; Home – .300 BA, .849 OPS.
Evan Gattis: Road – .200 BA, .533 OPS; Home – .300 BA, 1.014 OPS
Players have publicly come out and stated how they felt cheated by what the Astros did and have bashed the MLB for how they have handled the scandal. These numbers help us understand why
they feel this way.
As the MLB unveils more on this scandal, it will be interesting to see whether or not they decide to take more drastic punishments for the Astros, and if those punishments will include suspensions of key players like Bregman and Altuve.
With players continuing to step forward and a tension-filled 2020 season approaching, fans all alike wonder how this is going to shape the future of the league.